From HERE:
SMITH: The report mentions the claim by Mohammad-Javad Zarif, the former Iranian ambassador to the United Nations, that “the White House is taking essential measures to orchestrate a ‘Velvet Revolution’ in Iran.”
PHARES: It is a reminder of the last decade of the Soviet Union when Soviet citizens invited to the West were eager to learn about open and free societies. They were often punished by Moscow for concocting revolutions against the Communist regime. The Iranian establishment lives in the paranoia of a similar situation. They spy on their own citizens when they travel and accuse them of being recruited by the West. When the Khomeinists start talking about a so-called ‘American support’ of a so-called ‘Velvet Revolution’ inside Iran, it means they are indeed afraid that seeds have already been sown for such a revolution. In fact, what worries the regime are not these scientific conferences but the narrative on many Iranian web sites talking about ‘democratic revolution.’ Ali Khamenei’s Pasdaran can feel the sentiment inside Iran’s civil society. Thus they want to suppress these sentiments by connecting them to an alleged American and Western activity.
3 comments:
I think this is easier said than done. The problem is same as was the case in Saddam Hussein's Iraq, i.e., the extensive security apparatus. But I think there's a good chance that the current Occupant of the presidency there will not get another term, and a large part of the problem is that he can inspire the Arab and Persian masses for jihad, but can't fix the problems of his own economy.
And jihadis like to eat.
And also, a lot of Arabs are really afraid of him--his religious rhetoric and self-aggrandizement are a concern. And now that oil has gone down, he can't continue to bribe the poor.
Whether Ahmadinejad secures another term in office will depend on the extent to which their god (ayatollah) will rig the elections in his favor. They disqualified many candidates before, so they could do it again.
The velvet revolution is taking place (slowly), not because of the US, but because the Iranian regime is so damn hard on its own people, suppressing their freedoms, and their every move (including haircut styles and whether and how they are to pluck their eyebrows!). These things do, by themselves, affect the general public gradually until their cup is full. It is clear that the vast majority of Iranians want to live a progressive modern life---just as Westerners do. Nevertheless, it is good that they get a good dose of that bad medicine so that they have no doubts in their minds of the falsity of their religion and especially of that Shia papal system (that bathwater needs to be thrown out the window along with the baby).
The one way for the regime to stay in power is to use political issues that Iranians would naturally rally behind, being essential to their pride, like nuclear technology and weapons. That's one way to keep the baby from crying. It will be interesting to see how that issue unfolds with Obama, and whether Israel will feel forced to take action on its own.
Post a Comment