This blog is written by a Christian living in the Middle East. My desire is to discuss Islam and Christianity in ways that will be helpful for people of the other religion.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Islamization of the UK proceeding very well
Check these figures out:
Growing numbers
The total number of Muslims in Great Britain:
2004: 1,087,000
2005: 2,017,000
2006: 2,142,000
2007: 2,327,000
2008: 2,422,000
That's about a 130% increase in four years. Amazing.
The 2001 Census has a total of 1,591,000 Muslims in the UK, while the above figure of 1,087,000 for 2004 is much smaller. So one would expect the 2004 population to be higher than the 1.6 million of 2001. That makes me wonder if the "1,087,000" for 2004 was miscopied from the Labour Force Survey. If so, then the "130%" conclusion needs to be revised (probably to just 20% from 2005 to 2008).
Ignoring the 2004 figure, and assuming that the 2005 to 2008 data are accurate (and this needs to be checked), we see that there has been a significant diminishing rate of return from a 185,000 increase in 2006-2007 (+8.6%), to just 95,000 in 2007-2008 (+4%). So, if anything, since 2005 there has been a big drop in their population rate, which is steadily diminishing.
Further, it may be worthwhile comparing these trends with those of other demographic groups---to get it into perspective---as well as other religious (and non-religious) groups and see what the trends have been like there. (Looking at the trends of one demographic in isolation from other demographics can lead to misleading impressions.) This is not to deny, of course, that Islam is growing in the UK, but so are other groups. It's quite possible that the Muslim population (in the UK for example) will approach a limiting value (and not increase to infinity!). (For those who know math, look at the curve x/(x+1), for large x, to see what I mean.)
Yes, Abu Daoud, I read the "10 times" in the article, but I won't believe it unless I see the data. Where are the data for the other demographic groups that show this 10-fold rate? Do you know?
The conclusions one infers from data statistics can depend very much on which data you choose, which years you select, etc. For example, if you look at the Hindu population in the UK from 1991 (p. 21) to 2001 (p. 21), they had an increase of 59.5%, and the Muslims (for the same time period) increased by 58.9%. So one can hardly say that Muslims increased by 10 times of other demographics. Hindus too increased by about the same rate during that time period.
The 2001 UK Census shows that 71.8% of the UK is Christian, 15.1% have no religion, which make up 86.9% of the UK. The Muslims a mere 3.9%. I think it's more productive to think of the glass as being 96.1% full than 3.9% empty. :-)
Here are some excerpts from the UK Statistics Authority showing that Muslim increases in the UK population are accompanied with some unfortunate poverty stricken qualities (most from Pakistani and Bangladeshi Muslims).
=============================
Health & Disability - Muslims report worst health.
Age-standardised rates of not good health were 13 per cent for Muslim males and 16 per cent for Muslim females in 2001. These rates, which take account of the difference in age structures between the religious groups, were higher than those of Jews and Christians, who were the least likely to rate their health as not good.
Education - One in three Muslims have no qualifications.
In 2003-2004, almost a third (31 per cent) of Muslims of working age in Great Britain had no qualifications -- the highest proportion for any religious group.
Labour Market - Muslim unemployment rate highest
The unemployment rate for Muslim men was 14 per cent in 2003-2004, over three times the rate for Christian men (four per cent). The rate for Muslim women was 15 per cent, almost four times the rate for Christian women (four per cent).
Samuel, like I said over at Don's blog, Positive Infinity, it is the set up for a replay of Lebanon's civil war: shrinking, wealthy Christian/secular community, growing but poor and uneducated and somewhat militant Islamic community. Urban warfare, all over again.
Hi Abu Daoud. Sorry, but I don't go to Positive Infinity (I have enough on my plate), though I agree with what you said since these poor conditions create the dangerous situation where Muslim youngsters would just commit suicide and take many others with them thru terrorists attacks. It is quite sad to see that UK immigration policy has been irresponsible to let in so many people from poor countries (esp. Muslims) without the proper resources and conditions by which they can be helped to move out of their impoverished circumstances.
I also do not trust these figures. If indeed the growth rate is in the range of 5% per year, then also consider the statement in the article that more people might be 'coming out' and call themselves Muslim now compared to a few years ago.
I have the impression that surveys have so many political ramifications, that I do not quickly trust any report. Especially not when described by journalists.
The burning question here is whether this growth is due to new immigration or due to conversion. In fact Islam, you like it or not, is the fastest growing religion all over the globe.The reason is, I am afraid, not at all a simple one. It is a multi faceted socio-economic phenomenon.
I think it's a combination of three factors: conversion, migration, and birth rates. Conversion being then least numerically important one of those three.
11 comments:
The fruits of socialism.
Something seems wrong with the 2004 figure.
The 2001 Census has a total of 1,591,000 Muslims in the UK, while the above figure of 1,087,000 for 2004 is much smaller. So one would expect the 2004 population to be higher than the 1.6 million of 2001. That makes me wonder if the "1,087,000" for 2004 was miscopied from the Labour Force Survey. If so, then the "130%" conclusion needs to be revised (probably to just 20% from 2005 to 2008).
Ignoring the 2004 figure, and assuming that the 2005 to 2008 data are accurate (and this needs to be checked), we see that there has been a significant diminishing rate of return from a 185,000 increase in 2006-2007 (+8.6%), to just 95,000 in 2007-2008 (+4%). So, if anything, since 2005 there has been a big drop in their population rate, which is steadily diminishing.
Further, it may be worthwhile comparing these trends with those of other demographic groups---to get it into perspective---as well as other religious (and non-religious) groups and see what the trends have been like there. (Looking at the trends of one demographic in isolation from other demographics can lead to misleading impressions.) This is not to deny, of course, that Islam is growing in the UK, but so are other groups. It's quite possible that the Muslim population (in the UK for example) will approach a limiting value (and not increase to infinity!). (For those who know math, look at the curve x/(x+1), for large x, to see what I mean.)
Samuel, check out the article, which says that Muslim population in the UK is growing at a rate 10 times faster than other demographics.
Good point on the census though. Perhaps one figure is every in the country, the other is UK citizens? Just a possibility.
But did you see the part about age: the largest section of Christians were over 70, the largest segment of Muslims under 4.
Yes, Abu Daoud, I read the "10 times" in the article, but I won't believe it unless I see the data. Where are the data for the other demographic groups that show this 10-fold rate? Do you know?
The conclusions one infers from data statistics can depend very much on which data you choose, which years you select, etc. For example, if you look at the Hindu population in the UK from 1991 (p. 21) to 2001 (p. 21), they had an increase of 59.5%, and the Muslims (for the same time period) increased by 58.9%. So one can hardly say that Muslims increased by 10 times of other demographics. Hindus too increased by about the same rate during that time period.
The 2001 UK Census shows that 71.8% of the UK is Christian, 15.1% have no religion, which make up 86.9% of the UK. The Muslims a mere 3.9%. I think it's more productive to think of the glass as being 96.1% full than 3.9% empty. :-)
Here are some excerpts from the UK Statistics Authority showing that Muslim increases in the UK population are accompanied with some unfortunate poverty stricken qualities (most from Pakistani and Bangladeshi Muslims).
=============================
Health & Disability - Muslims report worst health.
Age-standardised rates of not good health were 13 per cent for Muslim males and 16 per cent for Muslim females in 2001. These rates, which take account of the difference in age structures between the religious groups, were higher than those of Jews and Christians, who were the least likely to rate their health as not good.
Education - One in three Muslims have no qualifications.
In 2003-2004, almost a third (31 per cent) of Muslims of working age in Great Britain had no qualifications -- the highest proportion for any religious group.
Labour Market - Muslim unemployment rate highest
The unemployment rate for Muslim men was 14 per cent in 2003-2004, over three times the rate for Christian men (four per cent). The rate for Muslim women was 15 per cent, almost four times the rate for Christian women (four per cent).
Samuel, like I said over at Don's blog, Positive Infinity, it is the set up for a replay of Lebanon's civil war: shrinking, wealthy Christian/secular community, growing but poor and uneducated and somewhat militant Islamic community. Urban warfare, all over again.
Hi Abu Daoud. Sorry, but I don't go to Positive Infinity (I have enough on my plate), though I agree with what you said since these poor conditions create the dangerous situation where Muslim youngsters would just commit suicide and take many others with them thru terrorists attacks. It is quite sad to see that UK immigration policy has been irresponsible to let in so many people from poor countries (esp. Muslims) without the proper resources and conditions by which they can be helped to move out of their impoverished circumstances.
I also do not trust these figures. If indeed the growth rate is in the range of 5% per year, then also consider the statement in the article that more people might be 'coming out' and call themselves Muslim now compared to a few years ago.
I have the impression that surveys have so many political ramifications, that I do not quickly trust any report. Especially not when described by journalists.
The burning question here is whether this growth is due to new immigration or due to conversion. In fact Islam, you like it or not, is the fastest growing religion all over the globe.The reason is, I am afraid, not at all a simple one. It is a multi faceted socio-economic phenomenon.
Hi Lopa,
I think it's a combination of three factors: conversion, migration, and birth rates. Conversion being then least numerically important one of those three.
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