If demography is destiny, the future would seem to belong to Islam.
Consider. The six most populous Muslim nations – Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Pakistan, Nigeria and Turkey – had a total population of 242 million in 1950. By 2050, that 242 million will have quintupled to 1.36 billion people.
Meanwhile, Europe's fertility rate has been below zero population growth since the 1970s. Old Europe is dying, and its indigenous peoples are being replaced by Third World immigrants, millions of them Muslim.
Yet there is another side to the Islamic story.
In international test scores of high school students in reading, math and science, not one Muslim nation places in the top 30. Take away oil and gas, and from Algeria to Iran these nations would have little to offer the world. Iran would have to fall back on exports of carpets, caviar and pistachio nuts.
Not one Muslim nation is a member of the G-8 economic powers or the BRIC-four emerging powers – Brazil, Russia, India, China.He then goes on to conclude (rightly, I think) that the new Islamist regimes will not be able to deliver the new jobs and freedoms that the revolutionaries wanted. And then, I think, he misses the point and fails to see where his argument is going in the long run. He starts asking questions about what will replace those regimes when they fail. I think the more interesting question is what will replace the European regimes when they fail? He gets the demographics right, and the logical conclusion is that Europe must start to perform poorly and be less educated, Europe must start to look more like the countries where its new population is from. France MUST look more like Algeria. Germany MUST look more like Turkey. The UK MUST look more like Pakistan.
When will this happen and how should other countries react to it--that is the real question, and it must be addressed sooner rather than later. It is more urgent than the question about the projected failure of the new Islamist regimes. These regimes will understand what they are doing as the will of God, and a god who doesn't make breaking a few eggs to make an omelet (worldwide Islamic hegemony, namely). They will hold on to power, and their ruthless reigns will not result any time soon in a new revolution, but in oppression and, guess what? More emigration to Europe, thus making the Islamization of that continent all the more pronounced. Cf Iran--massive emigration and a theocracy and no coupe.